Global Food Shortages Continue To Worsen. India Bans Rice Exports After Russian Grain Deal Fails, As US Crop Failures Persist

Food shortages and risk of famine worldwide continue to grow as crop failures continue to mount globally along with production and shipping continually being inconsistent. Now recent events just this month alone have cranked things up a bit.

Indian Rice Collapse

The most recent example of this comes from India, where the nation issued an alarming warning that they will no longer be exporting their rice for the foreseeable future, which will force the price of rice higher.

India is the world’s leading exporter of rice.

Forbes reported:

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India—the world’s largest exporter of rice—banned all exports of “non-basmati white rice” late Thursday in an effort to keep domestic prices in check, raising fears it could further threaten global food security, which has already been impacted by Russia scrapping a key UN-brokered deal that allowed Ukrainian grains through the Black Sea.

India’s Food and Consumer Affairs Ministry said the move was taken to “ensure adequate availability” in the country and “allay the rise in prices in the domestic market.” The ministry added rice prices rose 11.5% over the past year and 3% over the past month in India.

India’s Food ministry said it had imposed an export duty of 20% on non-basmati white rice in September last year to lower prices and improve availability domestically. However, the effort to disincentivize exports did not pan out, as the volume of exports for this variety of rice was 25% in the seven-month period after the implementation of the duty compared to the same period a year earlier. “This sharp increase in exports can be ascribed to high international prices due to geo-political scenario, El Nino sentiments and extreme climatic conditions in other rice producing countries, etc.” the ministry said.

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Since the export ban was announced, panic buying of rice throughout different parts of the U.S. have already started. Rice hoarding and long lines reminiscent of the early days of The Covid War are circulating online. ZeroHedge published a handful of examples of the panic buying that began a week ago.

https://twitter.com/Aryabhata99/status/1682472867512942599?s=20

https://twitter.com/ThinkinHashtag/status/1682540691430187008?s=20

So it begins. India has banned some rice exports and now people are panic buying up rice. pic.twitter.com/ujpm66ER3n

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) July 23, 2023

Apparently the ban is for non Basmati rice. So Tamil and Telugu community would be most impacted as they consume Sona Masoori rice. They started hoarding as if rice won't be available anywhere else, ever. The fact is that Thai, Chinese, Japanese, Mexican and several immigrants in… pic.twitter.com/s8fRIeubMI

— Mr B (@maddyb65) July 22, 2023

https://twitter.com/moneycontrolcom/status/1683764993815089153?s=20

Russia-Ukraine Deal Falls Through

The Forbes article also mentioned that this snap decision by India comes days after a grain export deal fell through with Russia backing out, that allowed Ukrainian exports to be transported safely through the Black Sea.

‘The move is expected to have a detrimental impact on global food security, as Ukraine is a key global supplier of wheat, corn and sunflower oil. Russia blamed the West for its decision, saying sanctions have impeded its ability to export its own grain and fertilizer supplies—which Moscow says are also important for global food supply,’ Forbes added.

‘Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Black Sea Grain Initiative would be suspended until demands to get Russian food and fertilizer to the world are met,’ the Associated Press wrote.

When the part of the Black Sea deal related to Russia is implemented, Russia will immediately return to the implementation of the deal.

Peskov said.

But some have questioned the validity of this claim by Peskov.

Jazz Shaw for Hot Air commented:

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The conditions described by Dmitry Peskov don’t seem to match reality. He’s implying that Russia’s own shipments of both food and fertilizer are somehow being impeded. But there are publicly available records of all shipping in the region and they show that shipments of both Russian grain and fertilizer are at near record levels. Ukraine doesn’t have a navy and can’t stop Russian shipping. NATO allies are not blocking any Russian vessels.

So why is Peskov saying this? Russia has previously complained about “restrictions on shipping” and the cost of insurance. It’s true that insurance rates have risen for just about everything in the region because of the war. But that’s entirely Russia’s fault, so blaming the insurance brokers isn’t going to do much good. And as I already noted, nobody is blocking Russia’s ships.

This is a serious matter and Russia is engaging in a very dangerous game. Both Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of wheat, barley, corn, sunflower oil, and other staple food products for much of Africa and southern Asia. Those regions are currently experiencing summer droughts and a sudden cessation of these shipments could lead to actual famines in multiple countries.

This just sounds like a fit of pique on Russia’s part in response to Turkey more closely aligning with NATO and the EU. But then again, Russia’s sense of isolation and the encroachment of NATO on its borders was almost certainly one of the justifications Vladimir Putin felt when launching his invasion of Ukraine. So in that light, perhaps this response might be at least somewhat understandable. But it’s also a case of cutting off your nose to spite your face because Russia’s own exports will suffer under this broken arrangement even as it continues to labor under significant international sanctions.

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Commenting on the force majeure, Putin said the West has done everything they could to undermine the initiative.

This deal was signed precisely a year ago, on July 22, 2022. This so-called ‘deal’ was extended more than once. The last time was in May of this year for the period up to July 17 inclusive. We extended this deal again and again and, by extending, showed simply miracles of endurance and patience, tolerance.

The West completely undermined and wronged this essence. Instead of helping countries in need, the West used the grain deal for political blackmail, and besides, as I said, made it a tool for enriching transnational corporations, speculators in the global grain market.

No one was going to fulfill any commitments and agreements on the grain deal, they just constantly demanded something from the Russian Federation.

Even Russian intensions to donate fertilizers to poorer nations are hindered by the West.

It is Russia that contributes to global food security, while statements that Ukraine feeds countries are lies. The continuation of the grain deal has lost all sense.

I want to emphasize that we are not against the deal itself, as such. Especially given its importance for the global food market. And of course, we will consider the possibility of returning to it, but only on one condition – if – all the previously agreed principles of Russia’s participation in this deal are implemented without exceptions.

All obstacles for Russian banks, financial institutions that service the supply of food and fertilizers must be removed. This includes their immediate connection to the SWIFT international banking settlement system. What we need is not some promises or idea on this issue. We need implementation of these conditions.

And one of the basic conditions for Russia to return to the grain deal is restoring the humanitarian essence.

Putin said at a government meeting over a week ago

Several days ago Ag Web reported, ‘December SRW wheat surged 59 3/4 to $7.77 1/2 and closed at a five-month high close. December HRW wheat gained 58 1/2 cents to $9.25 1/4 and hit an eight-month high. Both markets closed near their daily highs and near limit-up. September spring wheat futures rallied 49 cents to $9.36.’

The wheat futures markets surged today as the Russia-Ukraine war escalates, with Russia attacking more Ukraine grain facilities, while Ukraine strikes back with drone attacks inside Russia’s border. Scorching Corn Belt weather that boosted the corn and soybean markets also spilled over into buying interest in wheat markets today.

The authors wrote, dated July 24th

U.S. Crops Getting Scorched

On July 4th The WinePress reported how U.S. corn and soybean crops are getting scorched, 70% of corn and 63% soybeans crops reportedly in drought.

On July 24th Ag Web noted that these percentages did lower temporarily to 55% and 50%. However, farmers are still quite worried with forecasts of the heat to only rise and remain sustained for the foreseeable future.

It’s been a year full of challenges, no doubt about it. To this point, our biggest issues have been with the dryness that peaked in late June, and since then, we’ve seen considerable relief in some areas. But now for the first time, we’re combining that with the highest temperatures of the season to date.

We could see widespread temperatures 100 degrees or higher throughout the western Corn Belt, extending eastward into the Mississippi Valley, and so the areas like Missouri where we really haven’t seen much recovery, if any, this heat on top of the dryness is coming in terrible time.

We have corn and soybeans that are in the reproductive to filling stage, which it’s absolutely critical to keep temperatures and keep the moisture coming in during this time. We have neither in the driest areas right now.

You’ve got to really focus on that southwestern Corn Belt area as the biggest concern, because if you look at Missouri, and parts of neighboring states, we’ve got much deeper problems than this week’s heat; we have the moisture deficiency, and we have the drought issues that go back all the way into early spring.

And so where we have those subsoil and topsoil moisture shortages in the southwestern Corn Belt, overlaying that with 100 degree heat this week, that is going to be another blow for corn and soybeans in those areas.

USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey, said

Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions, added in a statement:

I feel like we’ve been punched in the mouth twice. And if there’s a third punch, maybe it’s, you know, longer duration into early August, and I think we’re going to see some possible significant yield loss.

But if storms cascade over the top of it, and the ridge goes back to Arizona, then we will be talking about busting bins with yield.

And these are just some of the problems. All around the world nations are facing serious problems with their crops. Steve Poplar with The Poplar Report talks more about this in a briefing, emphasizing the severity of the situation.

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AUTHOR COMMENTARY

I recently added to my stockpile of rice the other day; and while I hate patronizing them, I went to Amazon to get a good deal on organic white and brown rice, the origin of which is from Argentina, who is having their own problems right now; but when I went to buy some more rice, Amazon is already placing caps on the amount I can buy per order. That just goes to show you how much rice people are buying right now. Fortunately I already had a specific stockpile of rice, but now I have more than enough I reckon, on top of everything else I have.

Therefore, if you like rice and want some in the future, you better get it now, because prices are only going to rise is it becomes more scarce.

In general I still recommend honey. Honey, depending on the source, is not only healthy, but is calorically dense and has an infinite shelf live if handled properly.

If you have been following my reports you know that worldwide famine is being ushered in. The Russia-Ukraine has really created a pickle for things, which I documented in the early onset of the war, and now as the divide between East and West grows, and more nations are looking to themselves first and foremost, the food insecurities and famine are going to mount.

I had warned that going into this year we were going to see problems, and we are now; and now at this pace the stage is set for a disastrous 2024.

[9] Ye looked for much, and, lo, it came to little; and when ye brought it home, I did blow upon it. Why? saith the LORD of hosts. Because of mine house that is waste, and ye run every man unto his own house. [10] Therefore the heaven over you is stayed from dew, and the earth is stayed from her fruit. [11] And I called for a drought upon the land, and upon the mountains, and upon the corn, and upon the new wine, and upon the oil, and upon that which the ground bringeth forth, and upon men, and upon cattle, and upon all the labour of the hands.

Haggai 1:9-11

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[7] Who goeth a warfare any time at his own charges? who planteth a vineyard, and eateth not of the fruit thereof? or who feedeth a flock, and eateth not of the milk of the flock? [8] Say I these things as a man? or saith not the law the same also? [9] For it is written in the law of Moses, Thou shalt not muzzle the mouth of the ox that treadeth out the corn. Doth God take care for oxen? [10] Or saith he it altogether for our sakes? For our sakes, no doubt, this is written: that he that ploweth should plow in hope; and that he that thresheth in hope should be partaker of his hope. (1 Corinthians 9:7-10).

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