Lloyd’s Insurance Marketplace Warns Of $14.5 Trillion Loss In Global Economy Due To World War III Risks

Lloyd’s, the world’s leading insurance and reinsurance marketplace, published a detailed report earlier this week titled “Revealing the risks of geopolitical conflict,” detailing what would happen, and most likely will occur at this point, if international tensions increase and wars expand.

Lloyd’s provides a summary of their findings, which include:

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The stakes are very high indeed. Many of the world’s key shipping gateways control access to high concentrations of vital resources, and the ability to control or deny access to this critical part of the supply chain can be a key weapon in the arsenal of governments willing to exert pressure on opponents or other nations.

Cutting access to just one of those routes could throttle up to 80% of one nation’s imports and energy. If there were to be significant disruption to just a handful of shipping’s main chokepoints, several trillion dollars of trade value and business interruption costs would be at stake.

So far during the 21st century, conflicts have not risen to the point of catastrophic global trade disruption. However continued stability is not guaranteed. Climate change is increasing pressure on key resources, political extremism (potentially exacerbated by social media polarisation or misinformation) is on the rise, and cyber attacks and new civil conflicts are escalating.

As well as the shocking humanitarian impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – 14.6 million people are thought to need humanitarian aid – the subsequent conflict has opened our eyes to the complexities of maintaining key global exports and trade routes. Prior to the invasion in 2022, Ukraine and Russia produced 30% of global wheat and 55% of global sunflower exports, with the outbreak of hostilities causing severe disruptions to food supplies, particularly in the world’s poorest countries. And as Ukrainian allies committed to phase out the use of Russian fossil fuels following the invasion, many nations had to implement emergency measures to settle the energy crisis that unfolded.

[…] The global economy is highly dependent on international trade. Whether lithium from Australia, semiconductors from Taiwan, or oil from the Gulf states, the world relies on the steady redistribution of critical resources. Added to this, a ‘just in time’ supply chain philosophy, where everything is shipped only when it’s needed, can mean that if conflict impacts even a single link in the chain, its effects could spread globally.

[…] Looking at the bigger picture, the invasion of a major economy by a superpower has the potential to significantly reshape global dynamics and geopolitics. On the ground, combative conflicts inevitably cause humanitarian suffering, mass casualties and extensive physical damage to critical infrastructure. More broadly, protests and civil unrest in response to global events are likely.

Trade and physical supply chains
The economic impacts of this scenario stem primarily from severe damage to infrastructure in the invaded region driving the need for realignment of global trade networks. And as the conflict intensifies with sanctions and compromised shipping lines, businesses and governments must navigate through disrupted supply chains and adjust their strategic priorities.

Industries dependent on critical materials such as semiconductors and rare minerals – healthcare (medical devices), technology, automotive and many more – would likely face chronic shortages and delays.

While sectors like textiles and apparel are better positioned due to diversified supply chains, they could also experience short term disruptions.

The cascading effects of global trade disruptions, combined with escalating sanctions and closed shipping lines, is likely to drive inflation or food shortages in some states. Developing countries facing these challenges could experience heightened vulnerability to health crisis due to insufficient nutrition.

Internet outages and digital supply chains
Internet outages are likely during periods of geopolitical tension or unrest. They can occur in a few circumstances.

Competing superpowers can kinetically target satellites used for photographic surveillance (IMINT/GEOINT), signals intelligence (SIGINT), missile launch detection for interception, or navigational aid to military formations. This can unintentionally cause interference with commercial satellites, which underpin internet availability, due to the swirling debris in orbit. 

Various world governments have also previously demonstrated their ability to “shut down” the internet. This can be within their own borders – such as President Hosni Mubarak disconnecting Egypt’s four internet service providers (ISPs) in 2011, or the internet cut-off in the Kashmir region of India between August 2019 and March 2020 aimed at stemming protests after the revocation of a constitutional article guaranteeing the autonomy of the region. 

Or it can be a targeted attack on a specific nation in conflict where online access is considered a critical weapon – in 2022 Russia attacked Ukraine’s internet to control the flow of information and broadcast Russian propaganda. Base stations, fibre-optic cables, and broadcasting antennae were captured or destroyed, and, in some regions, internet traffic was rerouted through Russian providers. 

Finally, while servers or fibre-optic cables in a particular region may be the intended target of an attack, connection issues can spillover into neighbouring countries. A notable, innocent example occurred in 2011 when an elderly woman scavenging for copper in her garden in Georgia accidentally damaged a fibre-optic cable, leaving Armenia and large parts of Georgia and Azerbaijan without internet access^[6]. 

During internet outages, online communication and operating systems, day-to-day functioning, transactions, and transportations are all halted. There is also a knock-on global impact on internet hosted critical infrastructure, travel, trade, and digital supply chains exasperating the physical issues already discussed. And a politically motivated attack on the internet has the potential to increase tensions between countries, as leaders seek accountability for the disruption. 

Cyber attacks, particularly those targeted towards critical infrastructure, can also occur because of war between major powers. You can find out more about the threat of geopolitical cyber physical risk in our 2022 report linked below.

Learn more details in the video below:

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AUTHOR COMMENTARY

Luke 14:28 For which of you, intending to build a tower, sitteth not down first, and counteth the cost, whether he have sufficient to finish it? [29] Lest haply, after he hath laid the foundation, and is not able to finish it, all that behold it begin to mock him, [30] Saying, This man began to build, and was not able to finish. [31] Or what king, going to make war against another king, sitteth not down first, and consulteth whether he be able with ten thousand to meet him that cometh against him with twenty thousand? [32] Or else, while the other is yet a great way off, he sendeth an ambassage, and desireth conditions of peace.

A lot of people and pundits talk about the ever-increasing prospects of expanding and deadlier war around the world, but the costs of such wars on such a scale are seldom discussed.

As the old adage continues to prove itself true time and time again, “all wars are banker wars.” These wars, which are a guaranteed lock at this point (so I would not waste too much of your time chattering about “peace negotiations” and “diplomacy” because it is in vain, in my view); and so therefore YOU need to count the cost yourself. You need to determine where you lack and what resources you need and protection-wise.

Yes, I understand many of you are strapped for cash, and you are physically handicapped for health reasons or because of your location, but you still need to do the best that you can; and that is to continue to put away excess food stores, water and filtration, decentralized power, ways to make heat and stay warm, sufficient security, and so forth. And above all else, faith and trust in the Lord for protection and the ability to provide for you in these trying times of need; and by extension removing all negative things and besetting sins that are hampering your wellbeing and relationship with the Lord.

Proverbs 21:31 The horse is prepared against the day of battle: but safety is of the LORD.

The cyberattack thing is something I have regularly warned about for years, as I believe a massive grid-down scenario is very likely and one of the next major events to transpire in relatively short amount of time; as the chaos that would create would be catastrophic, justifying more war while using that as a proxy to enforce digital IDs, CBDCs and tokenization.

SEE: US Cyber Pandemic Playbook: How A Cybersecurity Attack Would Cripple America And Send The People Into Chaos, And Justify More War

Klaus Schwab has warned that a “cyber pandemic” would make the Covid lockdowns look like child’s play.

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[7] Who goeth a warfare any time at his own charges? who planteth a vineyard, and eateth not of the fruit thereof? or who feedeth a flock, and eateth not of the milk of the flock? [8] Say I these things as a man? or saith not the law the same also? [9] For it is written in the law of Moses, Thou shalt not muzzle the mouth of the ox that treadeth out the corn. Doth God take care for oxen? [10] Or saith he it altogether for our sakes? For our sakes, no doubt, this is written: that he that ploweth should plow in hope; and that he that thresheth in hope should be partaker of his hope. (1 Corinthians 9:7-10).

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