This Halloween season is more of a trick than it is a treat. As the broader economy continues to stall-out due to inflation, energy prices, and hirer borrowing costs, the Halloween sales are coming in lower than normal and early temporary hirings for the holiday season are also are down, marking a bellwether for a continuously downward trending economy.
On the 27th Bloomberg reported that Halloween candy sales were down 3.9% in the 12 weeks ending October 8th versus to the same period last year. The report notes that candy sales may only grow up to 7% due to, “more normalized buying patterns and consumer budgeting.”
The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast that total Halloween spending would near $12.2 billion with per person spending increasing from $102.74 in 2021 to $108.24 this year. ‘The NFR also predicted increases in spending on children and adult costumes of 20% and 18% respectively,’ Bloomberg. But, it should be noted that inflation costs have a big role to play in this.
Goodwill, which annually sees an increase in Halloween-related sales this time of year, reported that sales were also noticeably down across the United States.
Local and independent businesses that rely on Halloween and other seasonal purchases are also seeing less traffic, too.
One of the more noticeable things this Halloween is the candy has shrunk in size. This is called shrinkflation, when companies mull the quantity and quality of products and services while keeping prices similar in order to not scare away customers. Candy has seen egregious examples of this, but in places like the United States and Canada the portions have not only shrunk but the prices are even more expensive in most cases.
Retail Insider reported on Canada’s candy shrinkflation, writing:
Enter “shrinkflation,” a silent and subtle disruptor that has infiltrated the Halloween candy aisle this year, affecting the purchasing power of Halloween enthusiasts. This phenomenon often escapes notice until you unwrap the package.
For instance, Reese’s, a perennial favorite, now comes in bite-sized portions that might appease toddlers but leave the rest yearning for more. The ever-popular “Rockets” have been reduced to incredibly diminutive sizes, and some Halloween M&M packages contain just two pieces. Given that Halloween is a once-a-year celebration and candies grace the shelves for only a brief period, these shrinkflation strategies are more conspicuous and startling to consumers this year.
Canadian food and health vlogger Kiana Docherty highlighted this shrinkflation of candy in North America, including this example of a minimized pack of Smarties, known as Rockets in Canada.
American media has acknowledged this as well, but as Docherty comments on, outlets such as The Washington Post are actually claiming that the major food companies are doing this not just because of costs, but to actually help make kids healthier by giving them smaller portion sizes.
Furthermore, she explains how stores were putting out Halloween candy and decorations as far back as July, expanding the traditional seasonal layout to entice more buyers soon, which naturally led to some consumers buying bags of candy earlier than normal and spending more as they broke into the candy bags almost instantly. Prices, compared to just a couple of years ago, have now radically jumped higher, with anywhere from 70-80% price gouges.
The short documentary is worth the watch.
Not only has shrinkflation and severe price hikes have hit the Halloween and holiday space, it speaks to much a broader trend: reduced temporary hirings.
Temporary and part-time hiring during the holiday season is used as a broad and indirect gauge for economic health. So far, the signs indicate that temp hiring this year is going to be lower.
The Trends Journal reported earlier this month that big businesses like Dick’s Sporting Goods and Macy’s would be taking on less temp staff compared to the year prior, but with Amazon being an outlier by vastly increasing the number of part-time workers.
The TJ wrote in their report:
Jobs website Indeed reported searches for seasonal work were up 19 percent this year over last, but seasonal jobs listed were 6 percent fewer and, among those, fewer cited an “urgent” need.
As we reported in “Recession Coming? Retailers Hiring Fewest Seasonal Workers Since Panic of ‘08” (19 Sep 2023), U.S. retailers plan to hire the smallest number of seasonal workers since 2008 because of higher labor costs and uncertainty over consumers’ holiday spending, according to a report by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas (CGC) obtained by Reuters.
Retailers will take on about 410,000 workers for this winter’s holiday season, according to CGC’s analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
That figure is only slightly higher than the 324,900 added during the last quarter of 2008 when the Great Recession was at its depths. A year ago, retailers added 519,400 temps, 26 percent fewer than during the same time in 2021.
“There is definitely more tightening around companies wanting to hold off hiring unless they really need to,” Yong Kim, founder of placement service Wonolo, said to The Wall Street Journal. They want to wait to see how the season and quarter play out, he added.
Traditionally, many retailers count on holiday season sales to make the difference between profit and loss for the year.
Weak holiday sales again this year will put more stores out of business, more people out of work, add to the commercial real estate crisis, and hand banks more defaulted loans.
The result would be an even weaker economy and greater likelihood of an economic downturn.
The TJ wrote in September
AUTHOR COMMENTARY
I’m not here to go off on the rabbit trail of the Satanic origins of Halloween: that’s a whole different discussion. Right now I just wanted to highlight this story because it further it plays into where the economy is at right now; that you have massive shrinkflation observed heavily in the food and candy industries, while these companies are purposefully using this to their advantage to vastly increase their profit margins even more. Truly this is a trick, but if the consumer is so gullible enough to keep falling for these tricks, then the megacorporations will continue to pull these same dirty tricks.
And as for the lack of temp worker hirings for the holidays, this is a definite canary in the coalmine for what’s really going in the economy. This was observed last holiday season as well, which proves that consumers are forced to cutback drastically on their purchases. In an unpublished report I noted this, writing:
Companies cannot hold on. Each month ‘large’ companies are getting crunched because the consumer is getting slapped around. The Trends Journal reports that holiday and Christmas sales were down significantly and were a total bust for all intents and purposes, totally destroying the so-called experts predictions that they’d be higher by a lot. “Sales were down across a range of categories that usually fare well among holiday shoppers, including clothing, electronics, and online. Department store sales were off by a startling 6.6 percent,” The TJ wrote; adding that the stats are actually even worse because they were not adjusted for inflation, for which those rates are also underreported. Therefore consumer spending for this time was absolutely awful. This is important to note because that is the busiest time of the year for sales. If sales are down and down by a huge amount, that is a big canary in the coalmine. But adding onto that tens of thousands of temporary workers were let-go during this same time – which is precisely what happened before the dot.com and Panic of ’08. The TJ wrote, “the loss of temp jobs is a flashing signal that the worst is yet to come. And the higher and faster the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the higher the unemployment number will rise and the deeper the economy will fall.”
[7] Who goeth a warfare any time at his own charges? who planteth a vineyard, and eateth not of the fruit thereof? or who feedeth a flock, and eateth not of the milk of the flock? [8] Say I these things as a man? or saith not the law the same also? [9] For it is written in the law of Moses, Thou shalt not muzzle the mouth of the ox that treadeth out the corn. Doth God take care for oxen? [10] Or saith he it altogether for our sakes? For our sakes, no doubt, this is written: that he that ploweth should plow in hope; and that he that thresheth in hope should be partaker of his hope. (1 Corinthians 9:7-10).
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