On Friday the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released their annual Food Outlook forecasts for the coming year, and what they report are “alarming signs” that point to a rocky 2023, needless to say.
The global food import bill is set to rise to almost $2 trillion because of inflation inflation of essentially everything, other world currencies are weaking proportionately faster than the U.S. dollar, continued supply chains caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and other climate-related issues.
Hers is what the FAO had to say in sum:
The world food import bill is estimated to rise to US$1.94 trillion in 2022, higher than previously expected, according to a new report released today by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
The new forecast presented in FAO’s Food Outlook would mark an all-time high and a 10-percent increase over the record level of 2021, although the pace of the increase is expected to slow down in response to higher world food prices and depreciating currencies against the United States dollar. Both weigh on the purchasing power of importing countries and, subsequently, on the volumes of imported food.
The bulk of the increase in the bill is accounted for by high-income countries, due mostly to higher world prices, while volumes are also expected to rise. Economically vulnerable country groups are being more affected by the higher prices. For instance, the aggregate food import bill for the group of low-income countries is expected to remain almost unchanged even though it is predicted to shrink by 10 percent in volume terms, pointing to a growing accessibility issue for these countries.
These are alarming signs from a food security perspective, indicating importers are finding it difficult to finance rising international costs, potentially heralding an end of their resilience to higher international prices.
The report from FAO’s Markets and Trade Division warns.
The Food Outlook report, which breaks down food trade patterns by food groups, warns that existing differences are likely to become more pronounced, with high-income countries continuing to import across the entire spectrum of food products, while developing regions are increasingly focused on staple foods. In this context, FAO welcomes the approval by the International Monetary Fund of a Food Shock Window – broadly based on FAO’s Food Import Financing Facility proposal – as an important step to ease the burden of soaring food import costs among lower income countries.
The Food Outlook also assesses global expenditures on imported agricultural inputs, including fertilizers. The global input import bill is expected to rise to US$ 424 billion in 2022, up 48 percent from the year before and as much as 112 percent from 2020.
Higher costs for imported energy and fertilizer are behind the foreseen increase. Both are particularly relevant in import bills, posing strains for the current accounts of low-income and lower middle-income countries. As a result, some countries may be forced to reduce input applications, almost inevitably resulting in lower agricultural productivity and lower domestic food availability.
Negative repercussions for global agricultural output and food security [are likely to extend into 2023].
According to FAO.
More data is available here.
Food Trends
Issued twice a year, Food Outlook offers reviews of market supply and utilization trends for the world’s major foodstuffs, including cereals, oil crops, sugar, meat, dairy and fish. It also looks at trends in ocean freight rates. Supplies of most of these major commodities are at or close to record levels, but multiple factors point to tighter markets ahead.
World wheat production is forecast to reach a record 784 million tonnes in 2022/23, buoyed by significant harvest recoveries in Canada and the Russia Federation. That should push global wheat inventories to record levels, although the report notes that the accumulations are expected mostly in China and the Russian Federation, while stock levels are predicted to drop by 8 percent in the rest of the world.
Coarse grain inventories are forecast to fall to their lowest levels since 2013 due to inventory drawdowns in major countries as a result of anticipated declines in production. Global coarse grain production is forecast to fall by 2.8 percent in 2022, to 1 467 million tonnes. While it will likely drop in 2022/23, world rice output is envisaged to remain at an overall average level, buoyed by resilient planting levels in Asia and recovering output in Africa.
Global oilseed production is forecast to rebound and reach an all-time high in the 2022/23 marketing year, with increased outputs of soybean and rapeseed expected to offset a likely drop in sunflower seed production.
Global sugar production is also forecast to increase, buoyed by expectations of a significant recovery in Brazil’s production and larger crops in China and Thailand, while consumption is seen growing at a slower pace.
Worldwide outputs of meat and dairy products in 2022 are both expected to increase modestly, while total fisheries and aquaculture production is expected to increase globally by 1.2 percent, with a 2.6-percent expansion in aquaculture output anticipated to more than offset a slight fall in capture fisheries output.
AUTHOR COMMENTARY
Regulars of The WP know that I had been warning about the impending food shortages and sky high inflation that was coming since 2020, and especially since the early days of this year I had warned that it was going to really become a problem. Already we have been seeing shortages creeping up around the world from what they were already at, but 2023 are legitimately going to have some “problems,” to put it mildly.
Swedish Foodtech Founder Calls For “Marshall Plan” For Food To Retransform The World Food Systems
[10] Thus saith the LORD unto this people, Thus have they loved to wander, they have not refrained their feet, therefore the LORD doth not accept them; he will now remember their iniquity, and visit their sins. [11] Then said the LORD unto me, Pray not for this people for their good. [12] When they fast, I will not hear their cry; and when they offer burnt offering and an oblation, I will not accept them: but I will consume them by the sword, and by the famine, and by the pestilence. [13] Then said I, Ah, Lord GOD! behold, the prophets say unto them, Ye shall not see the sword, neither shall ye have famine; but I will give you assured peace in this place. [14] Then the LORD said unto me, The prophets prophesy lies in my name: I sent them not, neither have I commanded them, neither spake unto them: they prophesy unto you a false vision and divination, and a thing of nought, and the deceit of their heart. [15] Therefore thus saith the LORD concerning the prophets that prophesy in my name, and I sent them not, yet they say, Sword and famine shall not be in this land; By sword and famine shall those prophets be consumed. [16] And the people to whom they prophesy shall be cast out in the streets of Jerusalem because of the famine and the sword; and they shall have none to bury them, them, their wives, nor their sons, nor their daughters: for I will pour their wickedness upon them. Jeremiah 14:10-16
[7] Who goeth a warfare any time at his own charges? who planteth a vineyard, and eateth not of the fruit thereof? or who feedeth a flock, and eateth not of the milk of the flock? [8] Say I these things as a man? or saith not the law the same also? [9] For it is written in the law of Moses, Thou shalt not muzzle the mouth of the ox that treadeth out the corn. Doth God take care for oxen? [10] Or saith he it altogether for our sakes? For our sakes, no doubt, this is written: that he that ploweth should plow in hope; and that he that thresheth in hope should be partaker of his hope. (1 Corinthians 9:7-10).
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yep, the 3rd seal is ready to be opened, when Yeshua decides its time. the good news is, we are gone before he decides to open the 4 seals
The first has not even been opened yet, and if it did, the church would have been resurrected and removed before God pours out his wrath.
1 Thessalonians 5:9 For God hath not appointed us to wrath, but to obtain salvation by our Lord Jesus Christ, [10] Who died for us, that, whether we wake or sleep, we should live together with him.
we have witnessed the set-up of Jacob’s trouble; we have witnessed the set-up for the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse
. my above comment says we will be gone before Yeshua decides to open them.
1st seal the anti- christ
2nd seal peace being taken from the earth
3rd seal famine a measure of wheat for a penny
4th seal death and hell follows
I have studied eschatology for 25 years and I have been saved for 30 years, so I think I know what is happening in this world.
Yes, we’re seeing the setup right now, but as for the seals the first four being the horsemen of the apocalypse, not yet.
By the way, why are you saying Yeshua and not Jesus? If you’re Jewish and Hebrew is your native tongue, then okay, otherwise we are to call God “Jesus.”
don’t you comprehend what I am saying, I know the seals have not been opened. they will be opened after the harpazo,= rapture, the last 2 comments I stated we are gone before they are opened. Yeshua is his name, Jesus is not Yeshua’s name, you are a baby Christian andy and you have a lot of growing up to do. Learn from your elders.
Yeshua is a Jew, he was born in Bethlehem Israel, he was a Jew, and he will always be Jewish, and when he walked this earth he was known as Yeshua. I will continue to call my Lord Yeshua, and you can call him whatever you want, like I said Andy you need to grow up in the Lord, I know you are a baby Christian and yes it takes a while to mature.