False Hope: US “Misery Index” Nears Lowest Since Pre-Covid

The following report is by Credit News, published on December 22nd:

The sum of U.S. unemployment and inflation—known as the “misery index”—fell to 6.8% in November from 7.5% the previous month. That’s the lowest since the summer and fast approaching pre-Covid levels.

The misery index is calculated by adding up the current unemployment rate (3.7%) and the inflation rate (3.1%). The formula provides a simple way to gauge whether the well-being of Americans is improving or not.

Misery peaked in April 2020 when the index spiked to 15%, the highest since 1982. Conditions have improved since the early onset of Covid, but it hasn’t been smooth sailing.

After falling back to 7.7% in January 2021, the index re-accelerated over the next two years as inflation surged. The misery index was 12.5% in June 2022—the same month that annual inflation hit 9.1%.

The unemployment component of the index has been faring well since Covid emergency measures were lifted back in 2021. The unemployment rate has remained below 4% for nearly two years—even as the economy begins to slow.

But economists warn that the misery index doesn’t offer a complete picture of how the average American is doing. You can tell just by asking them how they feel about the economy and personal finances.

How Do Americans Really Feel?

Economist Greg Ip, who heads economic commentary at The Wall Street Journal, compared the misery index to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index—one of the most closely-watched consumer surveys.

“Based on historic correlations, sentiment has been more depressed this year than you would expect given the level of economic misery,” Ip wrote, arguing that consumers are more pessimistic than the misery index would suggest.

A deeper dive into the sentiment data reveals that Americans are still frustrated about inflation and the impact of high interest rates on their finances. And while the consumer sentiment index rose in December—breaking a four-month skid—some economists attributed it to a temporary holiday boost ahead of Christmas.

“Consumer spirits are perking up for the holiday season which is a sign Christmas is still coming this year,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, a New York-based financial research company.

A separate sentiment survey from LSEG/Ipsos paints an even less enthusiastic picture of the average consumer.

The December primary consumer sentiment index—which measures Americans’ attitudes toward jobs, investments, the economy, and personal finances—declined from November and was only up slightly compared to 12 months earlier.

According to the survey, attitudes toward the current situation, investments, and jobs “showed significant declines this month.”

The Impact Of Cumulative Inflation

As Creditnews Research reported in a recent study, Americans aren’t celebrating the slowdown in inflation because they’re still reeling from the cumulative price increases of the past three years.

While inflation has fallen to 3.1%, consumer prices have increased by a cumulative 19% since the start of 2020. Food prices are up a whopping 25% over that period.

Americans spent the better part of two years—April 2021 to January 2023—seeing inflation grow faster than their paychecks. That trend reversed in February of this year.

But even with stronger purchasing power this year, the vast majority of Americans (92%) said they reduced their spending in the six months through September, according to a Morning Consult survey for CNBC.

A majority of respondents across all wage brackets said current economic conditions negatively impacted their finances.

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AUTHOR COMMENTARY

Around the same time this report was published in December a few days before Christmas, it was reported that “consumer confidence” increased by 69.70 points in December from 61.30 points in November of 2023. Now how did it go up, and why is it so high to begin with? Because, it’s made-up, manufactured nonsense.

A number of proverbs could be used to exemplify this gobbledygook, but these two are very fitting: Proverbs 14:24: “The crown of the wise is their riches: but the foolishness of fools is folly”; and, Proverbs 15:14: “The heart of him that hath understanding seeketh knowledge: but the mouth of fools feedeth on foolishness.”

Most of the data that is reported on mainstream media, and regurgitated by politicians, investors and traders (traitors), and other analysts who appeal to authority; create facts and statistics based on lies and deceit. And so when these people rattle off their statistics, they not only deceive the masses, but deceive themselves and live in their little ivory castles. This is why idiots such as Biden, for example, can stumble around and point at these made-up statistics as to suit his agenda, when he, like other politicians or media shills, come into work and repeat these garbage statistics.

The fact is this “misery index” is a comical joke; though in some ways is accurate in a roundabout way, as most Americans still choose to live in willful ignorance about the desolation that is waiting for them…

Go to now, ye rich men, weep and howl for your miseries that shall come upon you.

James 5:1

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[7] Who goeth a warfare any time at his own charges? who planteth a vineyard, and eateth not of the fruit thereof? or who feedeth a flock, and eateth not of the milk of the flock? [8] Say I these things as a man? or saith not the law the same also? [9] For it is written in the law of Moses, Thou shalt not muzzle the mouth of the ox that treadeth out the corn. Doth God take care for oxen? [10] Or saith he it altogether for our sakes? For our sakes, no doubt, this is written: that he that ploweth should plow in hope; and that he that thresheth in hope should be partaker of his hope. (1 Corinthians 9:7-10).

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