Economists Reveal That The Feds Have Manipulated Data To Make It Look Like The US Created More Jobs When It Really Did Not

The following report is by Slay News:

The U.S. federal government has produced higher than expected jobs numbers by double-counting figures this year, a top economist has stated.

Throughout this year, the monthly jobs reports have been repeatedly topping market estimates.

The July and August non-farm payrolls (NFP) reports showed 528,000 and 315,000 new jobs, respectively.

The figures are far higher than what many economists and analysts had initially projected.

White House officials have taken victory laps on the employment data, noting that these numbers are proof the economy is strong and that President Joe Biden’s policies are supporting post-pandemic growth.

However, economists have been raising questions about the discrepancy between the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data and the various labor-related numbers revealed throughout the month.

Plus, many are questioning why the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening campaign failed to diminish labor demand.

Several experts say they have now determined what is causing better-than-expected labor numbers.

It appears the high numbers may have to do with double-counting.

The NFP report contains the results of two surveys, the Establishment Survey and the Household Survey.

The former measures employment, hours, and earnings through a sample of businesses.

The latter gauges “the labor force status of the civilian noninstitutional population with demographic detail” using a sample of households.

The key difference between these two surveys is the methodology, as the Establishment Survey allows for double-counting.

In other words, it will identify multiple jobholders for every position, meaning that a person with two jobs will count for two jobs.

But the Household Survey will only consider an individual with two jobs as one job.

BLS researchers will also count someone shifting from self-employment to working for a company as a new position, despite the lack of net gains in employment.

According to EJ Antoni, a research fellow for regional economics in the Center for Data Analysis at The Heritage Foundation,

There is considerable evidence that this double-counting has accelerated recently.

Antoni’s research found that of the 5.8 million jobs recovered in the last year, roughly 1.3 million were the result of double-counting.

In the August numbers, double-counting accounted for 208,000 jobs.

Over the last year, a disproportionate number of people have taken second (or third) jobs and switched from self-employment to working for other businesses.
These changes in employment do not actually change the number of people with jobs, but they boost the headline jobs number from the establishment survey, one of two surveys which make up the monthly Employment Situation report from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Antoni told The Epoch Times.

How the figures are put together should prompt analysts to adopt “a holistic view on the monthly report” rather than the headline numbers,” he added.

Last month, the total number of multiple jobholders was a seasonally adjusted 7.747 million, and self-employed workers fell to 9.629 million.

Mike Shedlock, a registered investment advisor for SitkaPacific Capital and author of the popular global economics blog MishTalk, also noted the trouble with how BLS gathers labor data.

In the household survey, if you work as little as one hour a week, even selling trinkets on eBay, you are considered employed.
In the household survey, if you work three part-time jobs, 12 hours each, the BLS considers you a full-time employee.
He wrote

Moreover, other factors can distort the monthly labor report.

For example, a common measurement is that if someone is out of work and fails to search for a job, he or she is described as having dropped out of the labor force rather than being listed as unemployed.

These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.
He said.

Many have championed accelerated wage growth over the last 18 months.

In August, average hourly earnings held steady at 5.2 percent year over year, hitting $32.36.

But inflation has eaten away at these gains.

BLS data show that real average hourly earnings (inflation-adjusted) fell 2.8 percent. In addition, when real average hourly earnings are combined with the 0.6 percent drop in the average workweek, the figure is negative 3.4 percent.

The longer inflation and inflation expectations remain elevated, the higher and longer-lasting the pressures on wage growth are likely to be.
Wrote Òscar Jordà, a senior policy advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve, in a recent paper.

According to the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, one-year ahead earnings growth expectations have remained flat, at 3 percent, since December 2021. In addition, consumer inflation expectations over the next year eased to 5.7 percent in August, after potentially peaking at 6.8 percent in June.

AUTHOR COMMENTARY

Anyone who has followed The WinePress for any length of time knows that I have said the data and the media messages of prosperity were/are a load of garbage. Nothing they say can be trusted.

And this extends beyond Biden, but also into Trump and Obama. Trump especially, because this man continued to point to an artificially propped-up stock market as the source of prosperity, even though a plethora of indicators said otherwise, which I have covered some of them before.

The point is, the data is fraudulent. The U.S’ is not creating jobs, and those that are “created” are just people returning to old jobs that are part-time or in low-wage service and hospitality sectors. Meanwhile, just taking the fraudulent government data at face value, jobless claims continue to be stuck at around 200,000 each week, but those are probably fake too; as we know the inflation numbers are just as fake as well.

We have no economy: it’s dead.

The United States Does Not Have An Economy

The Quickest Way To Know The Economy Is Broken Beyond Repair

[11] For they have healed the hurt of the daughter of my people slightly, saying, Peace, peace; when there is no peace. [12] Were they ashamed when they had committed abomination? nay, they were not at all ashamed, neither could they blush: therefore shall they fall among them that fall: in the time of their visitation they shall be cast down, saith the LORD. [15] We looked for peace, but no good came; and for a time of health, and behold trouble!
Jeremiah 8:11-12, 15

[7] Who goeth a warfare any time at his own charges? who planteth a vineyard, and eateth not of the fruit thereof? or who feedeth a flock, and eateth not of the milk of the flock? [8] Say I these things as a man? or saith not the law the same also? [9] For it is written in the law of Moses, Thou shalt not muzzle the mouth of the ox that treadeth out the corn. Doth God take care for oxen? [10] Or saith he it altogether for our sakes? For our sakes, no doubt, this is written: that he that ploweth should plow in hope; and that he that thresheth in hope should be partaker of his hope. (1 Corinthians 9:7-10).

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